Derivatives CVA calculation example Monte-Carlo with python

Posted on 28-December-2013 by admin

Here we’ll show an example of code for CVA calculation (credit valuation adjustment) using python and Quantlib with simple Monte-Carlo method with portfolio consisting just of a single interest rate swap.It’s easy to generalize code to include more financial instruments , supported by QuantLib python Swig interface.

CVA calculation algorithm:

1) Simulate yield curve at future dates

2) Calculate your derivatives portfolio NPV (net present value) at each time point for each scenario

3) Calculate CVA as sum of Expected Exposure multiplied by probability of default at this interval

$CVA = (1-R) \int{DF(t) EE(t) dQ_t}$

where R is Recovery (normally set to 40%) EE(t) expected exposure at time t and dQ survival probability density , DF(t) discount factor at time t

Outline

1) In this simple example we will use Hull White model to generate future yield curves. In practice many banks use some yield curve evolution models based on historical simulations.
In Hull White model short rate $r_t$ is distributed normally with known mean and variance.

2) For each point of time we will generate whole yield curve based on short rate. Then we will price our interest rate swap on each of these curves.
after

3) to approximate CVA we will use BASEL III formula for regulatory capital charge approximating default probability [or survival probability ] as exp(-ST/(1-R))
so we get
$CVA= (1-R) \sum \frac{EE^{*}_{T_{i}}+EE^{*}_{T_{i-1}}}{2} (e^{-\frac{ST_{i-1}}{1-R}}-e^{-\frac{ST_{i}}{1-R}})^+$
where $EE^{*}$ is discounted Expected exposure of portfolio

Details

For this first example we’ll take 5% flat forward yield curve. In the second test example below we’ll take full curve as of 26/12/2013.

1) Hull-White model for future yield curve simulations

the model is given by dynamics:
$dr_t=(\theta_t-ar_t)dt+\sigma dW_t$
We will use that in Hull White model short rate $r_t$ is distributed normally with mean and variance given by
$E(r_t|r_s)=r_se^{-a(t-s)}+\gamma_t-\gamma_se^{-a(t-s)}$
$Var(r_t|r_s)=\frac{\sigma^2}{2a}(1-e^{-2a(t-s)})$
where $\gamma_t=f_t(0)+\frac{\sigma^2}{2a}(1-e^{-at})^2$
and $f_t(0)$ is instantaneous forward rate at time t as seen at time 0.
The calculations will not depend on $\theta_t$ .
To generate future values of $r_t$ first we will generate matrix of standard normal variables using numpy library function numpy.random.standard_normal().After that we will apply transform $mean+\sqrt{variance} Normal(0,1)$ to get $r_t$
after getting matrix of all $r_t$ for all simulations and time points we will construct yield curve for each $r_t$ using Hull White discount factors $E(r_{t_i})$ for each future date

$P_{\rightarrow T}(0)= E( e^{-\int_0^Tr_sds})=E( E(e^{-\int_0^Tr_sds}|F_{t_i}))=E(P_{\rightarrow t_i}(0)E(e^{-\int_{t_i}^Tr_sds}|F_{t_i}))$ for each future time point $t_i$ $T is maturity$

also we'll output some generated yield curves.

from  QuantLib import *
import numpy as np
from math import *
from pylab import *

def A(t,T):
    evaldate=Settings.instance().evaluationDate
    forward = crvToday.forwardRate(t, t,Continuous, NoFrequency).rate()
    value = B(t,T)*forward - 0.25*sigma*B(t,T)*sigma*B(t,T)*B(0.0,2.0*t);
    return exp(value)*crvToday.discount(T)/crvToday.discount(t);

def B(t,T):
    return (1.0-exp(-a*(T-t)))/a;

def gamma(t):
        forwardRate =crvToday.forwardRate(t, t, Continuous, NoFrequency).rate()
        temp = sigma*(1.0 - exp(-a*t))/a
        return (forwardRate + 0.5*temp*temp)

def gamma_v(t): #vectorized version of gamma(t)
    res=np.zeros(len(t))
    for i in xrange(len(t)):
        res[i]=gamma(t[i])
    return res

Nsim=1000
#a=0.03
#sigma=0.00743
#parameters calibrated with Quantlib to coterminal swaptions on 26/dec/2013
a=0.376739
sigma=0.0209835

todaysDate=Date(26,12,2013);
Settings.instance().evaluationDate=todaysDate;
crvTodaydates=[Date(26,12,2013),
               Date(30,6,2014),
               Date(30,7,2014),
               Date(29,8,2014),
               Date(30,9,2014),
               Date(30,10,2014),
               Date(28,11,2014),
               Date(30,12,2014),
               Date(30,1,2015),
               Date(27,2,2015),
               Date(30,3,2015),
               Date(30,4,2015),
               Date(29,5,2015),
               Date(30,6,2015),
               Date(30,12,2015),
               Date(30,12,2016),
               Date(29,12,2017),
               Date(31,12,2018),
               Date(30,12,2019),
               Date(30,12,2020),
               Date(30,12,2021),
               Date(30,12,2022),
               Date(29,12,2023),
               Date(30,12,2024),
               Date(30,12,2025),
               Date(29,12,2028),
               Date(30,12,2033),
               Date(30,12,2038),
               Date(30,12,2043),
               Date(30,12,2048),
               Date(30,12,2053),
               Date(30,12,2058),
               Date(31,12,2063)]
crvTodaydf=[1.0,
            0.998022,
            0.99771,
            0.99739,
            0.997017,
            0.996671,
            0.996337,
            0.995921,
            0.995522,
            0.995157,
            0.994706,
            0.994248,
            0.993805,
            0.993285,
            0.989614,
            0.978541,
            0.961973,
            0.940868,
            0.916831,
            0.890805,
            0.863413,
            0.834987,
            0.807111,
            0.778332,
            0.750525,
            0.674707,
            0.575192,
            0.501258,
            0.44131,
            0.384733,
            0.340425,
            0.294694,
            0.260792
            ]

crvToday=DiscountCurve(crvTodaydates,crvTodaydf,Actual360(),TARGET())
#crvToday=FlatForward(todaysDate,0.0121,Actual360())

r0=forwardRate =crvToday.forwardRate(0,0, Continuous, NoFrequency).rate()
months=range(3,12*5+1,3)
sPeriods=[str(month)+"m" for month in months]
print sPeriods
Dates=[todaysDate]+[todaysDate+Period(s) for s in sPeriods]
T=[0]+[Actual360().yearFraction(todaysDate,Dates[i]) for i in xrange(1,len(Dates))]
T=np.array(T)
rmean=r0*np.exp(-a*T)+ gamma_v(T) -gamma(0)*np.exp(-a*T)
rvar=sigma*sigma/2.0/a*(1.0-np.exp(-2.0*a*T))
rstd=np.sqrt(rvar)
np.random.seed(1)
stdnorm = np.random.standard_normal(size=(Nsim,len(T)-1))

rmat=np.zeros(shape=(Nsim,len(T)))
rmat[:,0]=r0
for iSim in xrange(Nsim):
    for iT in xrange(1,len(T)):
        mean=rmat[iSim,iT-1]*exp(-a*(T[iT]-T[iT-1]))+gamma(T[iT])-gamma(T[iT-1])*exp(-a*(T[iT]-T[iT-1]))
        var=0.5*sigma*sigma/a*(1-exp(-2*a*(T[iT]-T[iT-1])))
        rnew=mean+stdnorm[iSim,iT-1]*sqrt(var)
        #if (rnew<0): rnew=0.001
        rmat[iSim,iT]=rnew

bonds=np.zeros(shape=rmat.shape)

#E(E(exp(rt)|ti) test
for iSim in xrange(Nsim):
    for iT in xrange(1,len(T)):
        bonds[iSim,iT]=bonds[iSim,iT-1]+rmat[iSim,iT]*(T[iT]-T[iT-1])

bonds=-bonds;
bonds=np.exp(bonds)

bondsmean=np.mean(bonds,axis=0)
#plot(T,bondsmean)
#plot(T,[crvToday.discount(T[iT]) for iT in xrange(len(T))])
#show()

startDate=Date(26,12,2013);

crvMat= [ [ 0 for i in xrange(len(T)) ] for iSim in range(Nsim) ]
npvMat= [ [ 0 for i in xrange(len(T)) ] for iSim in range(Nsim) ]

for row in crvMat:
    row[0]=crvToday

for iT in xrange(1,len(T)):
    for iSim in xrange(Nsim):
        crvDate=Dates[iT];
        crvDates=[crvDate]+[crvDate+Period(k,Years) for k in xrange(1,21)]
        rt=rmat[iSim,iT]
        #if (rt<0): rt=0
        crvDiscounts=[1.0]+[A(T[iT],T[iT]+k)*exp(-B(T[iT],T[iT]+k)*rt) for k in xrange(1,21)]
        crvMat[iSim][iT]=DiscountCurve(crvDates,crvDiscounts,Actual360(),TARGET())

bondT=np.zeros(shape=rmat.shape)
for iSim in xrange(Nsim):
    for iT in xrange(len(T)):
        bondT[iSim,iT]=bonds[iSim,iT]*crvMat[iSim][iT].discount(19-T[iT])

bondTmean=np.mean(bondT,axis=0)
np.set_printoptions(precision=4,suppress=True)
print 'bondTmean-Terminal bond\n',bondTmean-crvToday.discount(19)


plot(range(10),[crvMat[0][0].forwardRate(k, k,Continuous, NoFrequency).rate() for k in range(10)])
for i in xrange(min(Nsim,10)):
    plot(range(10),[crvMat[i][1].forwardRate(k, k,Continuous, NoFrequency).rate() for k in range(10)])
title('generated yield curves')
show()

#indexes definitions
forecastTermStructure = RelinkableYieldTermStructureHandle()
index = Euribor(Period("6m"),forecastTermStructure)

#swap 1 definition
maturity = Date(26,12,2018);
fixedSchedule = Schedule(startDate, maturity,Period("6m"), TARGET(),ModifiedFollowing,ModifiedFollowing,DateGeneration.Forward, False)
floatingSchedule = Schedule(startDate, maturity,Period("6m"),TARGET() ,ModifiedFollowing,ModifiedFollowing,DateGeneration.Forward, False)
swap1 = VanillaSwap(VanillaSwap.Receiver, 10000000,fixedSchedule,0.02, Actual360(),floatingSchedule, index, 0,Actual360())  #0.01215

for iT in xrange(len(T)):
    Settings.instance().evaluationDate=Dates[iT]
    allDates= list(floatingSchedule)
    fixingdates=[index.fixingDate(floatingSchedule[iDate]) for iDate in xrange(len(allDates)) if index.fixingDate(floatingSchedule[iDate])<=Dates[iT]]
    if fixingdates:
        for date in fixingdates[:-1]:
            try:index.addFixing(date,0.0)
            except:pass
        try:index.addFixing(fixingdates[-1],rmean[iT])
        except:pass
    discountTermStructure = RelinkableYieldTermStructureHandle()
    swapEngine = DiscountingSwapEngine(discountTermStructure)
    swap1.setPricingEngine(swapEngine)

    for iSim in xrange(Nsim):
        crv=crvMat[iSim][iT]
        discountTermStructure.linkTo(crv)
        forecastTermStructure.linkTo(crv)
        npvMat[iSim][iT]=swap1.NPV()

npvMat=np.array(npvMat)
npv=npvMat[0,0]
#replace negative values with 0
npvMat[npvMat<0]=0
EE=np.mean(npvMat,axis=0)
print '\nEE:\n',EE
#print '\nrmat:\n',rmat
print '\nrmean:\n',rmean
#print '\nrstd:\n',rstd
#print '\n95% are in \n',zip(rmean-2*rstd,rmean+2*rstd)


S=0.05
R=0.4
sum=0
for i in xrange(len(T)-1):
    sum=sum+0.5*crvToday.discount(T[i+1])*(EE[i]+EE[i+1])*(exp(-S*T[i]/(1.0-R))-exp(-S*T[i+1]/(1.0-R)))
CVA=(1.0-R)*sum
print "\nnpv=",npv
print "\nCVA=",CVA


plot(T,EE)
title('Expected Exposure')
xlabel('Time in years')
#plot(T,np.mean(rmat,axis=0))
#plot(T,rmean)
#plot(T,[npvMat[0,0]]*len(T))
show()
print "\nnpv",npvMat

output:

credit value adjustment
Expected exposure

bloomberg CVA = 35266

NB: bloomberg's Exposure is our exposure multiplied by (1-R)

CVA swap

Posted in OTC derivatives valuation, quantlib Tagged with: basel iii, counterparty credit risk, credit risk, credit risk modelling, cva, interest rate swap valuation, otc derivatives, python, quantitative risk analysis, quantlib, swap

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Quantitative Finance Interview: tips and top questions says:

11-April-2016 at 20:28

[…] for credit positions its useful to know how to derive NPV of floating and fixed leg of CDS, and poisson process characteristics.implementation of Credit Valuation Adjustment is discussed here : […]